Spending cuts

Our welfare support system has never worked that well. It hasn't helped people get back into work, it hasn't allowed them to get the training they need, and it has kept those who survive on benefits in a state of abject poverty. It is confusing and hard to navigate, both for people who rely on benefits and those who advise them. In so many ways it fails to deal with the reality of people's lives. What's more, it has not worked for employers, as it has not made it easy for people to make the transition.

By any definition 2010 has been an extraordinary year. The arrival of an energetic new government in Westminster with an expressed wish to "be judged by what we do about the poorest" has to be welcomed by any organisation with a focus on what happens to people and places in poverty.

We are living in very difficult times. Many communities feel as if they are facing the shadow of recession, and those that have suffered badly, and never really recovered from the last recession are all too aware that the impact of public expenditure cuts may cause further damage. At the same time, people who are themselves in poverty face changing systems, with differing expectations and a worrying time as their already complex lives are subject to sudden announcements, reductions and changed rules.

Initial relief at an additional £2bn for social care by 2014–15 has evaporated in the wider context of 26% cuts in local government revenue grants and changes to benefits which will affect working-age disabled adults.

What will be the impact of recent announcements on education, for people in poverty?

It is welcome news that the overall budget for schools will increase in real terms. Given pupil numbers are set to increase quickly, however, the aim is to ensure cash spending per child doesn’t fall (spending per child is likely to fall slightly in real terms).

Now the waiting and speculation are over. We know the big numbers, and can see the results of negotiations and bitter battles. For JRF there is only one question to ask: what does this do to people and places in poverty? Working through the detail and understanding the implications will occupy us in the weeks and months ahead, but, reviewing this major spending review, the picture does not look good.

The analysis of whether the Spending Review is progressive or regressive is likely to be controversial, especially after the Emergency Budget report initially appeared to show a progressive impact only to be contradicted by the IFS's fuller analysis shortly afterwards.

The key messages from the Treasury's analysis of this Spending Review seem to be:

Ahead of Wednesday's Comprehensive Spending Review, today we are publishing a report on the issues confronting those involved in planning and providing adult social care.