A shift is occurring in British government policy from State planning to individual planning. This emphasis on individual planning makes assumptions about people's capacity to plan for the future; in particular, it assumes that people have similar capacities to plan ahead. In-depth interviews with 41 people of different ages and social groups by Karen Rowlingson at the University of Bath explored people's views on and current plans for their future lives. The study found: 

• The people interviewed generally did not make detailed, formal plans for the future.
• Even if people were both willing and able to think and plan ahead, their capacity to do so was often limited by economic insecurity and lack of resources. Those with secure (and high) incomes felt they were more able to plan ahead. Those with less secure (and low) incomes felt they had less capacity to make plans.
• People found it difficult to estimate the risks of certain events happening to them (such as divorce, ill health, unemployment), because they saw the future as uncertain on a global, national and individual level.
• Interviewees did not wish to dwell on the risks of negative events happening to them, because it made them feel depressed.
• The researchers conclude that their findings raise questions about the appropriate balance between State and individual planning. Current perceptions of people who plan ahead, and those who do not, do not take into account the constraints which many people face.

Background
A shift is occurring in British government policy from State planning to individual planning, and policy-makers currently make a number of assumptions about individual planning. It is assumed, first, that individual planning is a good thing morally; second, that individuals have the same broad capacity to make individual plans; and third, that where people have difficulties in making plans, these difficulties can be reduced by providing better information. This research explored the extent and nature of whether people think about the future and the extent of their forward planning, in the light of such assumptions. 

Uncertainty about the future
Most people tended to 'live in the present' and gave relatively little thought to either the future or the past. Younger people, however, were more likely to be thinking about the future. Those people who did give some thought to the future were generally only looking ahead to the next year or so. Usually this was linked to specific future events such as graduating, paying off a debt, or a child starting school. Some people looked toward the very long-term in relation to their children's or grandchildren's futures. People saw 'the future' as multi-dimensional - it can mean their own personal future, their children's future, other people's future in general (including issues such as the future of the family or the nature of employment), or the future for the world (issues such as pollution, over-population, and war).

The interviewees had difficulty in imagining what they, and life in general, would be like in the medium or long term. They felt that they had no control over global and national issues and that both of these could impact on their future. For example, pension reforms left some interviewees uncertain about what type of pension arrangements would be available when they retired. At the level of the individual, some people pointed out that unexpected events can occur (like marriage, divorce, pregnancy, redundancy, ill health, and death). Some interviewees identified a conflict between planning ahead to pre-empt unexpected events, and the difficulty in planning for the unexpected; this left individuals struggling to know what to do for the best.

Previous research (Findings Ref: 348 and 369) shows that those in most need of private insurance products (such as unemployment insurance or mortgage protection insurance) are often the least able to afford them. They are also most likely to be excluded from such products. And even where people have taken out such products, there have been cases where insurers have disallowed claims on the grounds that the initial claim had, in fact, been ineligible.

Another explanation for only looking to the short-term future appears to be that people prefer not to dwell on the negative aspects of the future. In addition, some interviewees expressed the view that if they thought or planned too far ahead they would be "tempting fate" and so would be disappointed if the future did not turn out exactly how they wished. 

A short-term view of life therefore appeared to be linked to insecurity and feelings of powerlessness over the future. These insecurities appeared to be linked to people's circumstances at particular times - those in insecure economic situations felt that they had little control over the future, whereas wealthy interviewees did not think about the future because they had already set plans in motion which would take care of it. 

Ability to plan for the future
Some interviewees thought about their future a great deal but were not making any plans for it. This was because they lacked the capacity to make such plans:

"I haven't the time to think about what I want to do...I don't have the luxury of thinking, well, what would I like. At the moment, it's what we need, first and foremost."
(Woman, 30, with one 8-year-old child)

Optimism, anxiety and fatalism
People's feelings about the future seemed to fall into one of three broad categories: optimism/pessimism; anxiety/lack of anxiety; and control/lack of control. 

Most young people seemed to be optimistic and felt confident about the future. On the whole they were not anxious about the future and many felt that they were in control of what will happen: 

"I think everyone's got complete control over their own life. I mean I'm sure people have different starts and if you've had a good start in life...you probably perhaps are more fortunate...but...you make your own path in life."
(Man in mid-20s)

Some people were anxious and mostly pessimistic about the future. These people often felt they had little control over what might happen:

"Things at the moment seem very uncertain...as things are at the moment, I wouldn't say I've got that much control, and I think that is one of the things that worries me, that I've not got enough control."
(Man in mid-40s with three children)

Some people were fatalistic about the future and so were quite neutral about it - neither pessimistic nor optimistic. These people felt that they had little control over the future but they did not feel particularly anxious about this:

"Some people have a lot more [control] than others, a lot more. If you are determined to do something I believe you will get there and you will do it. But if you are like me - not bothered, well, you know, it's immaterial really."
(Woman in her 50s)

Older people, particularly those who were retired, were most likely to be fatalistic. 

The research suggests that age is therefore closely linked to how the future is perceived, though there is some variation within age groups.

Types of forward planning
People made plans in different areas of their life, from education, employment, family life and financial life to retirement and 'putting their house in order' (including planning for the funeral) for when their relatives have to deal with their death. Thus planning is a complex area, involving different dimensions within different areas of people's lives.

Planning was made in the short, medium or long term. Short-term planning usually involved planning events, shopping or expenditure on a weekly or fortnightly basis. Medium-term planning usually involved looking up to a year ahead, but it was determined not so much by 'clock time' as by 'social time', that is by the time a particular event is due to take place. Thus for some people, they planned ahead to the time when they would graduate, or the time when they were getting married, or the time when they would pay off a debt, or the time when they would be going on holiday. Long-term planning involved planning ahead over several years, if not decades, for example to retirement. Most people (though by no means all) were making short-term plans, some were making medium-term plans and a few were making long-term plans. 

Planning was both active and passive. Some people were very 'active' planners - they thought a great deal about the future, placed a high priority on their future and so made active plans for it. This could involve long-term planning such as joining a pension scheme or more medium-term planning such as saving for a holiday or a trip abroad to find work. Other people could be described as 'passive' planners. They found themselves in situations where forward planning was taken care of for them with little need to give it much thought. Such passive planning was particularly evident in the past, for example, when some occupational pension schemes were compulsory. 

"Instead of having to plan like mad throughout my career to have enough money to live on when I retired...I luckily landed a job which went on for a long while so I didn't change from one thing to another and lose rights or whatever and so I paid into the scheme...and at the end of the day I had a reasonable sort of pension and a bit of a handshake." 
(Man in mid 70s)

The research found that interviewees fell into three identifiable categories of how they planned for the future: detailed planners, general planners, and non-planners. 

There were few detailed planners among the interviewees. The reason for this might be because individual planning is thought to be very difficult where there is any financial insecurity. The detailed planners were more likely to be young people. This could be because young people were more future orientated and optimistic, and so were keen to make plans to achieve their aspirations.
Some interviewees (categorised as 'general planners') had vague dreams about the future but either had little real idea of how to achieve them, or lacked the confidence or commitment to pursue them.

Non-planners were most likely to be those on the low or middling incomes. These interviewees had suffered job or income insecurity, and felt that they had little ability to plan ahead. They had limited resources and so had few options for planning for their future. 

Those interviewees with reasonably high, secure incomes had greater control over their future and more choice over what and how to plan for the future. Equally, however, they can choose not to think or plan for the future because they are relatively secure. 

Another dimension of planning is the extent to which it is precautionary or anticipatory. Precautionary planning is directed at reducing the possibility or effects of negative events. Taking out insurance against unemployment would be an example of this. Anticipatory planning is planning towards some positive event such as getting married or going on holiday. Most planning in this study was anticipatory - people said they liked to think about, and plan for, positive events.

A final dimension of planning is whether it is effective or ineffective. For example, some people were making plans for the future by taking out a personal pension. But if the amount they are paying into the pension is very small, the benefit to them of such planning could be negligible.

Conclusions
The researcher suggests that certain policy questions arise in the light of these findings. Should policy seek to encourage or force people to make individual predictions and calculations about the risk of certain events happening to them? Should policy encourage or force them to contemplate depressing events such as ill-health and death? Should policy make people sufficiently anxious about the future that they are prepared to do something about it (but not too anxious that they plunge their heads into the sand)? What is the most appropriate balance between the State and the individual? These are all questions which will need consideration. The findings of this research suggest caution, however, in the move toward individual planning and away from State planning.

The moral dimension of planning also needs to be considered. Those who plan ahead are currently perceived as responsible, sensible citizens. Those who do not are seen as irresponsible free-loaders. Such views are simplistic, given the complex nature of constraints which many people face in planning ahead. 

About the study
The research involved 41 in-depth interviews with men and women from different age/lifecycle groups and socio-economic situations. The interviews took place in April/May 1999.

How to get further information
The full report, Fate, hope and insecurity: Future orientation and forward planning by Karen Rowlinson, is published for the Foundation by the Policy Studies Institute (price £12.95, plus £2.50 p&p, ISBN 0 85374 772 5).

Click on the 'order report' icon in the left margin to order online.