Up to 2000/1, there was no fall in those on relative low income ...
Over the four years 1997/8 to 2000/1, the proportion of people in
Scotland below the relative low-income threshold rose slightly, from
21.5 to 23.5 per cent (see Figure 1), while the proportion of children
(30 per cent) in that situation barely altered. By 2000/1 the
proportions for Scotland, both for the whole population and for
children, had become the same as those for Britain as a whole, after
having been less in previous years.
...nor any real longer-term change ...
Over the seven-year period for which there is reliable data, the
overall sense is one of little change, the average proportion on low
income in 1998/9 to 2000/1 (23 per cent) being identical to that for
in 1994/5 to 1996/7 (see Figure 1).
... but, beneath the surface, there is change ...
Thanks to falling unemployment, down from 8 per cent of the
working-age population in 1994 to 6 per cent in 2000, there was a fall
in the number of low-income, working-age households who are
unemployed. The share they represent of all low-income households also
fell, down from 25 per cent over the period 1994/5 to 1996/7, to 19
per cent over the 1998/9 to 2000/1 period. By contrast, there was a
rise in the number of low-income households containing someone who is
working, these 'working poor' households accounting for 41 per cent of
the low-income, working-age households in the period 1998/9 to 2000/1.
One factor that is likely to be related to this is the growth, albeit
slow but nevertheless steady, in the inequality of earnings among men
(although not among women) over at least the last decade.
...and those solely reliant on benefits remain far short of the
low-income threshold.
As a result of various changes in the tax and benefit system, some
low incomes have risen in real terms, thereby sharply reducing the
number of people below an absolute low-income threshold (see Figure
1). Even so, some people who are solely reliant on means-tested
benefits, for example couples whether with children or not, were still
more than £60 a week short of the relative low-income threshold at the
end of 2000.
Recent evidence points both ways about what is now happening. On
the positive side ...
The low-income numbers for 2000/1 pre-date the big rise in the
pensioners' Minimum Income Guarantee, from £78 to £92 for a single
pensioner and from £122 to £141 for a pensioner couple, which took
effect in April 2001. The downward movement in the proportion of
pensioners that was visible in 2000/1 is therefore likely to continue
in 2001/2. In addition, the take-up of WFTC, which was introduced in
October 1999, is still continuing to rise.
...but the employment situation is mixed ...
Over the two years from spring 2000, a period when the total number
of jobs in Scotland was growing, the number of jobs in industry
(manufacturing, energy, water and mining), construction and
agriculture, fell by some 10 per cent. In view of the importance of
households having two-earners to escape from low income, the loss of
such predominantly male, manual jobs may be disproportionately
important. Even during the five years to 2000, when the total number
of jobs in these sectors remained broadly unchanged, several local
authority districts lost more than 10 per cent of their jobs in these
sectors.
... and some deep-seated problems remain.
Over the four years to 2001, there was a barely perceptible fall in
the 340,000 working-age people who had been claiming one of the key
social security benefits (a grouping which does not include WFTC) for
two years or more, four-fifths of whom were sick or disabled. In
spring 2002, nearly 210,000 working-age households had been without
work for three years or more, the highest number for at least a
decade. A high and rising proportion of unemployed people are only
able to find short-term work, 45 per cent of those making a new claim
for Jobseeker's Allowance in spring 2002 having last claimed the
benefit less than six months previously.
There are signs of progress in education ...
Standard Grade attainment continued to climb through to 2001, both
on average and for the weakest students. The proportion of
school-leavers whose highest qualification is a Standard Grade 1 or 2
has risen sharply over the past five years, from 16 to 24 per cent,
with a corresponding fall in the proportion getting nothing higher
than a Standard Grade 3 or 4 (see Figure 2). The proportion going into
further or higher education also rose, to above 50 per cent in 2000/1
from 40 per cent a decade earlier.
... but the gap in attainment remains large ...
The gap in attainment at Standard Grade between those at the bottom
and the average is still large and shows no convincing sign of
reducing. There has also been no reduction since 1998/9 in the numbers
leaving school with either nothing or nothing higher than the lowest
Standard Grades (5 or 6), some 5,000 school leavers in 2000/1 (see
Figure 2). In spring 2000, around a fifth of all 19-year-olds - some
13,000 people - had no qualification (including vocational
qualifications) better than an SVQ2 or equivalent, a proportion no
different from 1996, although the trend since 2000 has been downward.
... and for individuals this brings real risks.
The fewer the qualifications a person has the higher their risk of
unemployment, ranging from 4 per cent for those with higher education,
10 per cent for those with no more than Standard Grades, and 13 per
cent for those with no qualifications. Unemployment remains high among
young adults, especially men, around 1 in 7 of those aged 18 to 25
being unemployed in spring 2002. This is associated with further
risks: 80 per cent of all 15- to 24-year-olds who commence a spell of
treatment for drug-misuse are unemployed, with one-sixth of this group
having never been employed.
Progress has been made in tackling premature death ...
For men aged 65, the death rate was more than a fifth lower in 2000
than it had been a decade earlier, with most of the improvement coming
in the last five years. A fall of such a magnitude, which is broadly
typical of death rates for men throughout their 60s, is clearly very
positive.
... but the inequalities remain substantial ...
Standardised mortality rates in the 10 per cent most deprived local
areas were more than twice as high as in the least deprived 50 per
cent, while for stomach cancer, lung cancer and heart disease, the
rates in 2000 for the worst local authority areas were more than 30
per cent above average (see Map in the pdf version of this Findings
here). The incidence of self-reported
long-standing illness or disability is markedly higher among those in
social rented accommodation, 1 in 5 of those aged under 45 and almost
1 in 2 for those aged 45 to 60.
... while some problems persist.
There have been around 120 suicides among young adults aged 15 to
24 each year over the last decade, there being no sign of a fall here
nor in the death rate from all causes for 25-year-olds. Some 1,300
underweight babies were born in 2001, low birth-weight being a
signifier of likely health problems in later life. The proportion this
represents (2.5 per cent) has remained unchanged over the previous
decade.
The number of homes without central heating has halved ...
In 1999/2000, the proportion of homes without central heating had
fallen to 8 per cent from 17 per cent four years previously. For
households with low income, the proportion also halved, from 25 to 13
per cent (see Figure 3). This development is doubly good, not only for
its effect on health but also because of the lower running costs
associated with a more efficient heating system.
...but homelessness is a growing problem.
Some 34,000 households were deemed to be homeless in 1999/2000, a
number that moved upwards over the 1990s. Despite the stock of
properties in the social rented sector falling by a quarter
(reflecting right-to-buy sales) during the 1990s, it is not obvious
that the availability of affordable housing has got any worse, with
the number of new lets each year remaining broadly constant over the
1990s.
Particular groups face disproportionate problems ...
More people from manual backgrounds are dissatisfied with the
quality of the services provided by their local council than people
from non-manual backgrounds. The feeling that it is very unsafe to
walk alone in one's local area at night is held more often by those
from manual backgrounds than those from professional or other
non-manual backgrounds (see Figure 4). Almost half of those in rural
areas find public transport inconvenient, compared with 1 in 10 in
urban areas and 1 in 6 in small rural towns.
... some of which are long-standing and well-known.
The proportion of low-income households without any kind of bank or
building society account remained in 2000/1 where it had been since
1994/5, at around 30 per cent, equivalent to some 130,000 households
(see Figure 5). By contrast, the proportion for the population as a
whole has remained at under 10 per cent. Only 1 in 5 people in urban
areas feel involved in their local community, compared with 2 in 5 for
those living in rural areas. The decline in the turnout for the 2001
General Election compared with four years earlier was proportionately
highest in those constituencies where turnout had been lowest to start
with.
