Twenty-five years ago, they were unpopular council estates, suffering from poor management, dilapidated environments, bad reputations and high proportions of empty homes. Today, after spending on homes and environments, more intensive neighbourhood management and long-standing community involvement, most of them appear to be turning the tide. This is according to a major report covering 25 years on 20 estates in London, the Midlands, the North East and North West, by the London School of Economics for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
Twenty-five years on twenty estates: Turning the tide? is the largest research project of its kind, tracking progress on the estates since 1980. It examines the key changes and what lies behind them, from national policy to community activity. It also captures the impact of the recent strong economy and housing market on the estates.
Report author, Rebecca Tunstall said, “Most of the estates have turned from a vicious circle of deprivation and stigma to a virtuous circle of improved popularity and easier management.”
Reflecting back over the past decade, staff and residents of over three- quarters of the estates felt improvements had taken place, adding to positive changes in the 1980s and early 1990s. One resident in London said, “This estate is the pride of the local authority,” while a resident in the North West said, “If I won the lottery I wouldn’t move.”
Formerly exceptional and stigmatised, the estates are now much closer to both local and national patterns. Ten years ago, the estates were described in an earlier report as “swimming against the tide” of social problems. However, in the past decade, unemployment rates on the estates dropped dramatically, from 34% of residents in 1991 to 16% in 2001. GSCE performance at estate-linked schools improved between 1994 and 2004, at a faster rate than national results. Housing management performance in the estates improved, with fewer empty homes, better repairs services and better-kept environments. Resident satisfaction rates on the estates are now close to the average for social housing.
Most estates received several rounds of central Government regeneration funding and council investment over the 25 years, which paid for some dramatic redevelopments, as well as basic refurbishment of homes and estates. Most councils provided intensive housing and neighbourhood management for much of the period, to help maintain conditions. Resident involvement in improvement decisions and community activities were important in all of the estates, and some residents and groups had been active continually for a decade or more.
In 1980, all homes in the estates were council-owned. Tenure diversification - particularly after 1995 - meant that social housing made up an average of 81% of homes by 2005, with other housing owned by residents or private landlords. Estate management also shifted away from councils and 13 of the estates were managed by housing associations or arms length management organisations by 2005.
Although most of these estates have been transformed, major policy challenges remain for these estates and housing and regeneration as a whole. The gaps between these estates and other social housing may have reduced, but they have not disappeared.
In 1998, the Government pledged that “in 10-20 years, no-one should be seriously disadvantaged by where they live.” This report shows that real progress can be made over this period, but that fully closing the gaps is likely to take at least 10-20 years or more.
Some of the improvements in the estates also appear to be linked to wider trends including high national employment levels and a strong housing market, which may not be sustained. While employment levels have risen, so has the proportion of residents who are economically inactive - not working or looking for work. And, although these estates are better places to live, some of the changes reflect population movements and the lives of individual residents may not necessarily have changed for the better. In some cases problems may have emerged in other local estates which received less attention.
“A quarter of a century of progress must not be threatened by complacency or a shift of attention from these estates and others like them. The policy challenge is to sustain improvements in these estates and ensure other areas can also benefit,” said author Rebecca Tunstall.
Lord Richard Best, Director of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, added, ”This report shows that even problematic estates can be improved and become popular, which suggests caution in criticising council housing and recommending demolition. Ministers are already becoming interested in devolution of management to neighbourhood level and a more localised approach. They also need to balance the funding for both physical and social regeneration to ensure that the positive changes seen on many of these estates can be sustained and delivered elsewhere.”
