Abandoned neighbourhoods are undermining city revival, warns report

Based on an in-depth assessment of unpopular neighbourhoods in Manchester and Newcastle, the report finds that both cities have lost a fifth of their population in less than 40 years. But within that overall picture of decline, it finds smaller areas where the problems are increasingly extreme.

In these neighbourhoods:

• New and good quality, modernised homes are being boarded-up or demolished through lack of demand;
• Property values have fallen rapidly, in some cases to zero;
• There are whole streets where most of the properties are empty;
• Unpopularity and depopulation have led to falling school rolls, loss of confidence in the area, problems with anti-social behaviour and an intense fear of crime among the remaining residents.

Researchers Anne Power and Katharine Mumford at CASE, the Centre for analysis of Social Exclusion at the London School of Economics, stress that the decline is not irreversible. They found areas where regeneration activities, including intensive neighbourhood management, pro-active policing and resident involvement, were helping to hold the line against further decline. They welcome evidence of a 'fightback' by local leaders, using new initiatives to attract people back to the inner city.

But they warn that the loss of demand for housing in the areas under study has been swift, sudden and unexpected. One in six properties were empty in the neighbourhoods they assessed, including pockets of complete abandonment.

Prof. Anne Power said: "The speed with which streets or blocks are shifting from being relatively well-occupied to nearly half-empty is alarming. This creates instability and reduces the level of informal social control, leaving a vacuum which eventually tips a highly localised low-demand area into rapid abandonment."

She added: "Demolition of specific, unpopular blocks and blighted property has sometimes increased the popularity of surrounding houses. But in some instances demolition has fuelled the problem by signalling a general lack of confidence. An atmosphere of uncertainty about the future of the area sends a signal of zero value and zero demand, deterring even more people from wanting to move in."

The report notes that the neighbourhoods studied share many characteristics with unpopular and hard-to-manage areas in London and cities in the South where housing demand remains high. But there are also important differences linked to economic growth, rather than decline.

Right to buy sales were extremely low in the study neighbourhoods that had the worst problems. As a further indicator of unpopularity, there was exceptionally high turnover of population in council housing, ranging between 20 per cent and 50 per cent a year. There was a much higher proportion of homes let by councils and housing associations and much lower levels of owner occupation.

In spite of the negative effects of low demand for housing, those who remain living in declining areas often show great resilience and vitality. Key elements of the 'fightback' include the emergence of local leaders, improved co-ordination and delivery of local services, co-operation between police, housing providers and residents and new approaches to marketing empty homes and the area overall.

But the researchers emphasise the need for policies that support attempts to restore confidence and attract a more socially-mixed population into inner city areas:

• Existing residents who lack skills need intensive support and strong links to local employers to help them find jobs.
• Regeneration must include efforts to attract more 'urban pioneers' who will not only occupy converted warehouses and new 'quayside' flats, but also spread into emptying inner areas.
• Stronger incentives are required to make urban 'brownfield' sites more attractive for redevelopment than 'greenfield' sites outside the city limits.
• Better schools, cheaper, easier public transport, greater security and meticulous care and maintenance of the local environment are all needed to support a 'pro-city' stance. 

Prof. Power said: "The neighbourhoods where we witnessed such acute decline may become the urban centres of tomorrow. It should not be beyond the wit and energy of out still highly urban, city-focused society to lever-in a new and better century for our cities."