Has progress on poverty in Scotland peaked - even before the recession bites?

10 November 2008

A new assessment of poverty trends in Scotland over the past decade from the New Policy Institute (NPI) for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) is published next week (10 November). As the Scottish Government prepares to publish its strategy on tackling poverty, the report reveals a mixed picture with significant challenges to tackle even before the effects of the recession come through.

At 25%, Scotland’s child poverty rate (measured after housing costs) is among the lowest in the UK. But there has been no progress in decreasing the number of children affected (equivalent to 250,000 children), which has remained the same for three years. And while the fall of a fifth since the late 1990s is better than the GB average, Wales and the north of England have reduced child poverty by similar proportions. Meanwhile the number of pensioners experiencing poverty is down by more than 100,000 compared to a decade earlier - a reduction from 31% to 16% in the overall pensioner poverty rate.

In contrast, poverty among working-age adults without dependent children has actually grown over the last decade, especially in households where someone is working (up by 50,000). And the number of adults in poverty in workless families without dependent children (200,000) now far exceeds the number of pensioners living in poverty, a reversal of the situation ten years ago.

Commenting on these figures, report co-author Tom MacInnes said: "While most of Scotland has become better off financially, the real value of the social security safety net for the largest group of adults in poverty hasn’t changed for two decades. As unemployment rises, the effects of this are going to be felt much more widely."

Other findings of the report include:

  • The Scottish Government's new focus on the bottom three tenths (deciles) of the income distribution should mean more attention for pensioners and lower-income working families.
  • The extent to which working-age adults claiming out-of-work benefits are concentrated in particular 'pockets of deprivation' in Scotland has barely changed in the past decade. Two-thirds of the small areas with the highest concentration are in the four main cities.
  • In contrast, low-paid workers are spread fairly evenly across the country with half living in parts of Scotland outside of the Central Belt and Dundee. The areas with the highest proportion of low-paid workers are Clackmannanshire and Dumfries and Galloway (both 35% for 2005 to 2007).
  • Commenting on this, co-author and NPI director Peter Kenway added: "The parts of Scotland where low pay is most prevalent are not usually those with the highest proportions of workless households. To cope with this, different policy interventions, with a different geographical focus, will be needed."