Migration from North ‘not responsible for pressure on homes in the South’

It finds that people moving from Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, the North of England and the West Midlands are playing only a minor part in raising the demand for housing in southern regions - especially the South-East. Instead, it shows that migration out of London and a bigger than expected increase in the resident population are the major reasons why regions closest to the capital are under pressure to expand.

The report uses the latest projections of population growth for the UK, including recently revised figures from the Office for National Statistics pointing to an extra 4.3 million households in need of accommodation by 2021. This compares with earlier estimates, based on 1996 population projections, of 3.8 million.

The analysis confirms that the demand for extra homes will fall disproportionately on the South-East, where the population is expected to grow by 50,000 a year. But it draws other conclusions that dispel a series of popular myths: 

• It is wrong to assume that pressures for more homes in the South are caused by northerners moving in.

Only 8 per cent of population growth in the South outside London between 1991 and 1998 was attributable to internal migration from the North, Midlands, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. By contrast, movement out of London contributed 50 per cent of growth, plus another 25 per cent due to ‘natural’ increase in the resident population. 

• Pressure for new housing to be built on undeveloped ‘greenfield’ land is not confined to the South-East.

The major cities of the North and Midlands have also experienced significant population movements to the suburbs and to surrounding rural areas.

• The projected growth in population across the UK is primarily a result of people living longer and more children being born.

Even in London, which has far higher levels of inward migration from abroad than elsewhere, natural growth will account for around half the expected increase in households.

• There will be mounting pressure on housing in London, not just the surrounding regions.

Although migration out of the capital is the major contributor to population growth in the South-East, London is also the premier destination for international migration from within and beyond the European Union. Those moving into London from overseas include extremes of rich and poor - fuelling central house prices on the one hand and raising demand for affordable, ‘social’ housing on the other. London is also experiencing a disproportionate increase in its natural population.

Richard Best, Director of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and joint editor of the report, said: “The decline of great cities is a national problem demanding action to regain and retain economically active people on the scale urged by Lord Rogers and his Urban Task Force. But our analysis shows that attempts to achieve an ‘urban renaissance’ by blocking migration from North to South would be misconceived. Most movement from cities only takes people as far as the suburbs and surrounding areas.

“The latest population estimates also tell us that international migration, principally into London, seems set to last as a significant phenomenon and must be planned for. Generally, there is no escaping the conclusion that population pressures will remain intense in the southern regions, and that London will be unable to meet all its housing needs within its own boundaries. The choices and decisions that confront central government and local planners do not grow easier.”