The story of devolution: poverty gap narrows but UK powers go further

A major study on the impact of devolution on the most disadvantaged people and places has shown that despite falling poverty and improving employment levels in the devolved countries, most significant progress has been down to reserved (UK) powers.

To coincide with ten years of devolution, JRF commissioned a series of reports to explore trends in social and economic disadvantage and policy developments in four key areas: housing and homelessness; employment; neighbourhood regeneration and long-term care for older people.

The research highlighted the continued importance of reserved (UK) powers for disadvantaged people and places, but it did also demonstrate the success of particular devolved policies such as social care and regeneration. However many devolved policies will need longer than ten years to make an impact, while others need to be applied on a bigger scale.

A failure in knowledge-sharing between countries and Whitehall was also identified as a barrier to making progress.

The key findings are:

• Scotland and North East England showed the most improvement across key indicators, demonstrating the impact of wider economic trends and policies reserved to Westminster
• The most significant social housing improvements were made in England and Scotland
• Regeneration policies in England and Wales benefited low income neighbourhoods due to a high degree of consistency over the decade. They were least effective in Northern Ireland where the 'stop-go' nature of devolution has delayed progress in regeneration substantially.
• Wales' targeted approach to social care for older people has enabled local authorities to reduce costs for those on lower incomes, benefiting those on the margins of poverty rather than extending support to the better off, while Scotland’s universal approach is more comprehensive and costly.
• Adult skills among the least-well qualified improved steadily in the devolved countries, but deaths among adults under 65 continued to lag behind much of England.

More specifically, the following gains and losses were made during ten years of devolution, reflecting a mix of reserved (UK) and devolved powers:

Scotland:

• Was the most improved part of the UK on 6 of the 16 indicators of disadvantage, followed by North-East England (5).
• There was a 15% reduction in pensioner poverty and an 8% reduction in child poverty (both after housing costs).
• The number of people without paid work fell by 5%, leaving Scotland ranked 4th in the UK.
• But Scotland retained the worst death rate among adults under 65.

Wales:

• Was the most improved part of the UK on infant mortality over the decade.
• Had the second best reduction in the number of working age people without educational qualifications (down 8%), faster than the other devolved countries.
• But was least improved for reduction in pensioner poverty (8%), half the rate in Scotland.
• And reduction in death rate among adults under 65 was second slowest in UK.

Northern Ireland:

• Was the most improved part of the UK on two employment measures: the internationally-recognised (ILO) rate of unemployment, which halved, and the number of people who want but lack paid work (down by 5% over the period).
• Despite this, Northern Ireland (along with London) still ended the period with the highest rate without paid work.
• The rate of pensioner poverty remained one of the highest in the UK, with one in five living
• Reductions in death rate among both infants and adults under 65 were slowest in the UK. For adults, the rate of reduction was half that seen in the most improved case (London).

Speaking about the research today, JRF Director of Policy and Research Anne Harrop commented:

The evidence remains mixed as to the impact of devolution on the most disadvantaged people and communities. Reserved policy areas are important to poverty alleviation, but where devolved countries have used their powers, some interesting and successful initiatives are showing signs of success. Greater collaboration and knowledge-sharing between the countries of the UK will ensure that this learning can be maximised across the UK.

Report author Jim McCormick added:

The scale of the projected cuts in public spending will cause some of the gains seen in the last 10 years to unravel. This will create the first major test for devolution. A sharper focus will be needed on how to lessen the impact on disadvantaged people and places and to prepare for a just and sustainable recovery in the four countries of the UK.