Over 400 constituencies are set to see over 1 in 3 working-age families with children hit by the cut to Universal Credit

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation publishes new constituency analysis on the impact of the planned cut to Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit.

413 parliamentary constituencies across Great Britain will see over a third of working-age families with children hit by the planned £1,040-a-year cut to Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit on 6 October 2021.

Of these 413 constituencies, 191 are Conservative – 53 of which were newly won at the last general election or in a subsequent by-election.

This new analysis also reveals that in some Labour constituencies more than three-quarters of families with children will be impacted by this cut.

The independent Joseph Rowntree Foundation has used the latest official data released last week to produce a comprehensive analysis of which parliamentary constituencies will be most affected by the scheduled cut to Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit.

The looming cut will have the most severe impact in Yorkshire & the Humber, the North East, North West and West Midlands.

However, the cut will have deep and far-reaching consequences on families with children across Britain, including seats like Hastings & Rye (54%) and South Thanet (52%) in the South East, Peterborough (64%) and Luton South (57%) in the East of England, and Torbay (50%) and Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport (48%) in the South West.

Katie Schmuecker, Deputy Director of Policy & Partnerships at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said:

“We are just over a month away from the UK Government imposing the biggest overnight cut to the basic rate of social security since the Second World War. This latest analysis lays bare the deep and far-reaching impact that cutting Universal Credit will have on millions of low-income families across Britain.

“MPs from across the political spectrum are already expressing their deep concerns about this planned cut. Now is the time for all MPs to step up and oppose this cut to their constituents’ living standards.

“Plunging low-income families into deeper poverty and debt as well as sucking billions of pounds out of local economies is no way to level up. It’s not too late for the Prime Minister and Chancellor to listen to the huge opposition to this damaging cut and change course.”

According to this analysis, on average 21% of all working-age families (with or without children) in Great Britain will experience a £1,040-a-year cut to their incomes on 6 October. The analysis found that in the 59 seats the Conservatives newly won at the last election or subsequently, that average is 23%.

A summary of the impact on all working-age families (with or without children):

  • 140 constituencies would see more than 1 in 4 of all families affected, including 36 Conservative seats
  • 21 of the Conservative seats were newly won at the last election or in a subsequent by-election and of these 14 are among the 100 most marginal seats in Britain

Top 10: All working-age families with children

Top 10 Labour seats affected
Constituency name Percentage of all working-age families with children impacted by the cut
Bradford West 82%
Birmingham, Hodge Hill 77%
Birmingham, Ladywood 77%
Bradford East 71%
Manchester, Gorton 70%
Blackley and Broughton 70%
Edmonton 69%
Middlesbrough 68%
Oldham West and Royton 66%
Birmingham, Perry Barr 66%
Top 10 Conservative seats affected
Constituency name Percentage of all working-age families with children impacted by the cut
Peterborough 64%
Blackpool South 58%
Pendle 58%
Burnley 58%
West Bromwich East 57%
Stoke-on-Trent Central 57%
West Bromwich West 57%
Boston and Skegness 57%
Great Grimsby 56%
Wolverhampton North East 56%

Top 10: All working-age families (with or without children)

Top 10 Labour seats affected
Constituency name Percentage of all working-age families (with or without children) impacted by the cut
Birmingham, Hodge Hill 54%
Bradford West 52%
Bradford East 46%
Birmingham, Perry Barr 44%
Edmonton 42%
East Ham 42%
Birmingham, Hall Green 42%
Oldham West and Royton 40%
Tottenham 40%
Blackburn 40%
Top 10 Conservative seats affected
Constituency Name Percentage Of All Working-Age Families (With Or Without Children) Impacted By The Cut
Peterborough 37%
Blackpool South 36%
Burnley 32%
West Bromwich East 32%
Wolverhampton North East 32%
West Bromwich West 31%
Great Yarmouth 31%
Hartlepool 31%
Walsall North 31%
Great Grimsby 30%