Micro-simulating child poverty in 2010 and 2020

Mike Brewer, James Browne and Holly Sutherland

This study forecasts the prospects for child poverty in 2010/11 and 2020/21 under current government policies, and illustrates the impact of various tax and benefit policies that could be implemented in 2010 and 2020.

The report begins by describing in detail the methods that were used to micro-simulate child poverty, covering issues such as re-weighting, adjusting financial variables, and making adjustments to reflect non-take-up of means-tested benefits and tax credits. The appendices contain more details on some of the key steps involved. The study sets out the set of tax and benefit policies and different socioeconomic scenarios that were used during the project, and highlights the key results.  Also included are a set of sensitivity tests performed on a limited number of the tax and benefit scenarios.

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