Brexit, general election and Indyref: the role of low-income voters in Scotland

Matthew Goodwin and Oliver Heath

This report analyses Brexit, the general election and the Scottish independence referendum, and looks at how low-income voters hold the key to Number 10.

The report shows:

  • Low-income voters do not have cohesive preferences on the two big referendum issues. Attempts to win them over only on these constitutional issues will likely have limited success.
  • Parties would do well to pitch to other issues and to discover more about the preferences and concerns of these voters.

The priorities for the main political parties are:

  • The SNP need to expand their base and rejuvenate their message if, with no second independence referendum in sight, they are to remain dominant.
  • Labour may be able to get through to voters by offering a programme based more on competence and delivery. The SNP and Conservatives have a track record of being in power, but the fact that so many people are dissatisfied is hardly a ringing endorsement for either of the two incumbent parties.
  • The Conservative Party may find further growth somewhat limited. In a similar way to the SNP, there is a ceiling on how much support can be gained from an appeal based around Brexit and the Union.


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