Skip to main content

The hidden cost of low pay in the social care sector

Low pay in the care sector is contributing to high staff turnover and costing providers, and users, billions of pounds.

Recruitment costs may vary so widely due to regional differences, provider size and efficiency with recruitment methods. What we can see from the figures presented is that the biggest variation in costs is the use of agency staff: for 5 providers this is their largest cost, including 3 providers who spend more on agency staff than all other recruitment costs combined. By comparison, 4 providers did not record any agency costs or negligible costs. This is likely to reflect different local market conditions and implies that certain providers are having to rely on an agency workforce over an extended period of time.

Modelling financial savings at sector level if care workers were paid RLW

In the event of paying all care workers a RLW, Skills for Care data (Skills for Care, 2024 c) estimated that there would be a reduction of 476,000 vacancies, including an additional 180,000 recruited to the sector and 296,000 people retained across a 15-year period.

We modelled financial cost savings for the sector, based on the following assumptions:

  • an estimated 296,000 care workers were retained within the sector over this period, for whom employers would avoid incurring costs associated with recruiting and training their replacement (recruitment, training, agency, and time to become efficient); we applied the median cost of £7,870.38 per retained worker, which is a saving of £2.33 billion over 15 years
  • an estimated 180,000 care workers entered the sector over the same period; for these, we only applied the median agency cost of £3,683.86, because costs to recruit and train the staff would still apply — this comes to a potential saving of £663 million over 15 years.

In total, we estimate the financial saving to the sector would be £2.99 billion in costs avoided such as recruitment, training and agency spending, as turnover falls.

Other financial impacts

In addition to the direct financial cost savings that would be accrued due to increased recruitment and retention, providers would also incur additional cost in the form of ENICs but also expect to gain financially by the GOS on the additional output delivered (see below).

To calculate the overall financial impact on the sector of paying the RLW, we estimated the ENICs and GOS (see Technical Appendix 6) to model the net value added to the sector, if all care workers received a RLW as minimum:

  • ENICs, based on 2025/26 rates and adjusted for part-time patterns, would total around £378 million over 15 years; while this is an added cost for providers, it also increases government tax revenue
  • the sector is also projected to generate an additional £442 million in GOS over 15 years if all staff were paid the RLW.

Overall, the sector could achieve a net benefit of approximately £3.06 billion over 15 years (£2.99 billion in reduced financial costs plus £442 million in GOS, less £378 million in ENICs).

Lost output costs quantified from provider data

Our research has shown that the true cost of low pay in the social care sector extends beyond direct financial expenses and is deeply tied to workforce instability. These estimated costs include:

  • The time taken to recruit a care worker: to estimate the loss of output resulting from the time taken to recruit one care worker, we calculated the value for each provider by multiplying the average hourly wage of a care worker by the total hours lost during the replacement period when one care worker leaves to when the new recruit starts; the median value of time lost was £4,625, ranging from £2,819.40 to £5,994
  • The time taken to train a care worker: based on the average time taken to meet all the required internal standards to work independently, and using the average hourly pay for a care worker at the organisation we estimated the cost of lost output for each provider; assuming care workers operate at 50% efficiency during this period, the median value of time lost training one new care worker was £3,288.13, ranging from £450 to £8,614.71.

In total we estimate the median lost output cost per new care worker to be £9,282.13, ranging from £3,913.15 to £12,944.15. A comparison of the lost output costs when replacing one care worker across organisations is provided below in Figure 2.

Compared to the financial costs, the lost output costs per vacancy are less variable across the 11 providers. There is, however, variation between providers about the key driver of output loss.

Out of the 11 providers, 8 incurred the greatest loss due to time taken to replace a care worker. However, 3 of the 11 providers reported that the bigger loss was associated with the time taken to bring staff up to speed — this may reflect that some organisations require staff to work with clients whose care needs are more complex, or staff do more lone-working, and therefore a longer induction and training phase is necessary.

One consideration in this study is the extent to which employing agency staff does or does not offset the outputs lost, captured in the figures above. We recognise that, in some instances, there will be some output which agency staff make up for. However, the ways in which agency staff are used varies extensively in different providers and, as captured during interviews, there is extensive time lost for other staff and managers arranging for and supervising agency staff. Agency staff are often, by the nature of being temporary, less productive or effective than other staff. Due to the complexity of this relationship, we have not sought to calculate what proportion of lost output may be off-set by the use of agency staff.

Modelling output costs avoided at sector level if care workers were paid RLW

Using the same methodology as per the financial costs, we modelled the output costs avoided if all care workers received the RLW. As described above, Skills for Care data (2024 c) estimated that there would be a reduction of 476,000 vacancies, including an additional 180,000 recruited to the sector and 296,000 people retained across a 15-year period.

We modelled financial cost savings for the sector over 15 years, based on the following assumptions:

  • an estimated 296,000 care workers were retained within the sector over this period, for whom employers would avoid incurring lost output during recruitment and training; the median cost of £9,282.13 was applied to these workers, which is an output loss avoided worth £2.75 billion over 15 years
  • an estimated 180,000 care workers entered the sector over the same period; for these, we applied the lost output during recruitment only, which is a median of £4,625, which is an output loss avoided worth £833 million over 15 years.

On this basis, the total estimated saving to the sector through avoided lost output costs would be approximately £3.58 billion over 15 years.

Costs associated with sickness

Low pay in the social care sector contributes to higher sick leave among care workers, with staff in participating organisations taking a median of 8.6 sick days per year (slightly below the sector-wide average of 9.9 days) compared to the UK workforce average of 5.7 days (ONS, 2023). The median cost of additional sick days per care worker is £305.53.

How would paying a Real Living Wage reduce costs associated with turnover?

Increasing pay or paying the RLW is not a silver bullet solution that will prevent care workers from moving roles — people will continue to enter and exit the workforce, as is the case with every sector and profession.

Skills for Care (2024 c) has previously modelled the financial costs associated with paying all care workers the RLW. Using the academic literature on the impact of wages of staff turnover (Vadean and Saloniki, 2023) and previous research by Care England, Skills for Care also estimated the changes in staff turnover and cost savings for the sector and NHS that would result from paying higher wages.

They estimated paying the workforce a minimum wage equivalent to the RLW would cost £2.2 billion annually. Over a period of 15 years, it would cost £21 billion to public finances, accounting for self-funders.

In the same analysis, they estimated that there would be a £2.7 billion saving to the NHS, over a 15-year period, resulting from the improvements in care and more effective use of resources.

Our analysis estimates that paying the RLW would:

  • prevent lost output costs incurred to the social care sector worth the equivalent of £3.58bn over 15 years
  • save £2.99 billion in direct financial costs such as recruitment, training and agency spending, as turnover falls
  • cost care providers £378 million in ENIC over 15 years, but this would be offset by £442 million additional GOS generated on additional output over the same period.

Taking account of the benefits to the NHS, social care sector and care workers, our analysis suggests that the investment in wages will be partially offset by financial savings, but also result in a more productive and stable care sector that can better serve the workforce and people who draw on care.

It should be noted that calculations of the additional people recruited and retained as a result of paying the RLW does not account for other sectors responding to changes to pay in the adult social care sector. For example, other competing sectors may also increase wages to remain competitive with adult social care wages. If this were the case, the impact on recruitment and retention would likely be lower than figures presented in this section, and therefore the savings less pronounced. It also does not model the impacts on the economy more widely.

Beyond the Real Living Wage

Paying the RLW is an important first step to improving pay and conditions for care workers, as this work demonstrates. It is right that care workers’ labour is valued, and they should be paid accordingly. Paying the RLW would also benefit the care sector, if it was adequately funded to do so.

However, the RLW is not a silver bullet, especially as we recognise that the gap between the RLW and the NLW has narrowed. While this is positive for workers that more people will receive better pay, it also means the RLW’s effectiveness as a lever to improve the sector at the same time as rewarding care workers fairly is more limited.

We would argue that care workers being paid at the NLW or close to it, is not a fair reflection of the difficult, skilled and socially essential work that they do. We would encourage policy-makers to consider how they can more accurately reward the valuable contribution that care workers make. This may mean going beyond the RLW in the future and aligning pay more closely with the NHS.

Aligning pay more closely with NHS levels will not be without challenges such as funding constraints, and other low-pay sectors, such as retail, may respond by raising wages too, reducing the competitive edge for the care sector. However, a longer-term ambition for more competitive pay reflects the reality of the labour market and the need to make social care a more attractive and sustainable career.

Elder person sat giving hug to care worker who is leaning down in their home.

This report is part of the care topic.

Find out more about our work in this area.

Discover more about care