Scale of action needed to reach Scottish child poverty targets requires every ounce of political determination

New analysis from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) shows how the next Scottish Government can meet the Parliament’s child poverty targets, and in doing so help to rebuild trust in politics. But the scale of the policy action needed means it will take every ounce of determination from the party that wins next year’s election to achieve it.

The analysis sets out over 20 modelled scenarios of policy solutions that could be taken by Holyrood and shows how close they get to achieving the cross-party target of 10% or less of children in Scotland in poverty by 2030/31 (compared to the current 23%). It then combines various policy options to illustrate the scale of change needed on multiple levels across Scottish society if around 100,000 children are to be lifted out of poverty by 2030/31.

The results show that while a concerted effort on many fronts is needed, poverty is not inevitable and that decisions taken in Scotland can make a difference.

Chris Birt, Associate Director for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland at JRF, says:

“Whoever forms the next Scottish Government has the chance to change what it means to grow up in Scotland. To do so, they must meet the Parliament’s child poverty targets. Not only for Scotland’s children and their futures, but to show those who often feel overlooked and ignored by politics that trust can be rebuilt through actions.

“This analysis gives each political party a detailed map to help them reach a Scotland free from child poverty. They may choose to take different routes to get there. But whichever route they take will require every ounce of determination and demand action at scale.

“The actions of Westminster governments may help, or hinder, but Holyrood has the chance to prove that it's up to the task of not just setting lofty ambitions but straining every sinew to deliver on them. A Scotland where every child has a childhood filled with fun, love and exploration is worth the effort.”

How political parties can reach the 10% child poverty target

The analysis finds that combining supporting more parents into work and increasing their hours as well as social security interventions brings the child poverty rate down to the target level of 10% by 2030/31. Both are necessary because not all parents will be able to work (or be able to work enough to secure a high enough income).

In this scenario:

• 50,000 parents would need to be supported into work (at the real Living Wage) and over 20,000 would need to increase their working hours.
• The individual social security measures set out below (increasing the Scottish Child Payment to £40, increasing take-up of the payment to 100% and additional support for the most at-risk families) would be combined.

In total this would cost an additional £920 million per year in targeted child benefits¹ as well as the substantial additional cost of supporting parents into work and increasing their hours.^2,3

However, there is also the potential for substantial returns. Tax revenues would increase by £410 million per year due to more parents being in work as well as reducing the amount spent on Universal Credit by around £500 million per year.  

Social security interventions have a significant impact, but in isolation aren’t sufficient

Increasing the Scottish Child Payment to £40 would bring the child poverty rate down to 18% by 2030/31:

• An increase from £26.70 per child weekly to £40 would lift 10,000 children out of poverty by 2030/31 and cost an additional £190 million per year.

Further social security interventions would be needed to get closer to the target, these could include:

• Increasing the Scottish Child Payment take-up to 100% at the current rate, which would reduce child poverty by up to 10,000 children by 2030/31. This would cost an additional £60 million per year.
• Introducing a Scottish Child Payment supplement (of an additional Scottish Child Payment per family) for households with a baby, where someone is disabled and/or a single parent, which would lift 10,000 children out of poverty, 20,000 out of deep poverty and 20,000 out of very deep poverty. This would cost an additional £310 million per year.