Scottish political parties must address economic insecurity

As political parties in Scotland prepare their manifestos for the coming election they face 2 interlinked challenges. Many people feel economically insecure, and many people are feeling politically disaffected. 

While politics may feel more uncertain, one thing remains clear; people want to see and feel the impact of change in their lives and in their communities. 

Crucially our analysis shows that across the political spectrum, solutions that tackle economic insecurity are popular, can garner political support and reduce political disaffection. Last year we set out the scale and types of action required to increase household incomes via work and social security to levels required to significantly reduce child poverty. These are the solutions that parties need to have at the front of their mind when planning for either how they would govern and/or how they will hold the next Scottish Government to account.

Our findings act as a mirror to the mood of the electorate. Throughout the country, significant proportions of people intending to vote for every major party, and those still to decide, are experiencing economic insecurity. How parties respond to this will shape not just living standards, but whether voters believe politics can still deliver change.

As a result, all political parties have an opportunity, indeed, a responsibility, to meet these challenges head-on. Delivering more of the same is not an option, people are united in demanding lower bills, jobs that help pay those bills, and increased financial security. This is why, as the protest march of the same name stated, Scotland Demands Better, and why it is now time for our politicians to deliver the change people so desperately want to see.

Here we set out how economic insecurity and political dissatisfaction are connected to the political parties people support, and how their vote has changed since the Holyrood election in 2021. Most importantly it shows the areas of action that voters of each of the parties, and those yet to decide, feel would best increase their economic security and in turn, their feelings about politics in Scotland. There are a few key findings that inform much of the following analysis:

• Nearly half (47%) of adults in Scotland were feeling economically insecure when we polled them in November — meaning that they strongly or somewhat agreed that they were worried about their family’s economic security.
• Over 1 in 5 people in Scotland are very economically insecure when we look at their worries about their income, savings, debts, housing and work. Nearly three quarters (72%) of people who were very economically insecure were not confident that they could pay an unexpected cost or bill of £200 in the next 7 days and/or cover essential costs like food and energy. That’s 16% of all respondents.
• Nearly 2 in 5 (38%) people in Scotland are feeling politically disaffected.

The latter finding should be of deep concern to political parties in Scotland. Political disaffection shows an underlying mistrust in our politicians and the institutions they represent. And this is fundamentally linked to the level of economic insecurity that is experienced across Scotland today. Tackling that should be a key focus of the election and is a crucial platform for rebuilding trust in our political system.

First, we look at how feeling economically insecure and being very economically insecure impact on people’s voting intentions. People who are feeling economically insecure are slightly more likely to be voting SNP (30% vs 27%) and Reform UK (16% vs 14%) than all people. Whereas people who are very economically insecure are slightly more likely to vote SNP (29% vs 27%), be undecided (15% vs 12%) and more likely to vote Scottish Green (10% vs 5%). While people who are feeling economically insecure (14%) and people who are very economically insecure (11%) are slightly less likely to vote for Scottish Labour than all people (16%). And as economic insecurity intensifies, the proportion of people intending to vote Scottish Conservative falls from 10% for all people to 5% for people who are very economically insecure.

It is worth noting, however, that there are not huge differences between the general voting intentions of those that were polled and those who were economically insecure in some way. 

Yet, as it stands, people in Scotland feel overlooked by politicians and our political system. They are frustrated by a lack of change on the things that matter to them, like reducing child poverty. We found that nearly 2 in 5 (38%) people in Scotland are feeling politically disaffected. Political disaffection is not abstract, it is people’s assessment of whether politics is improving their lives or not. Where parties are seen as unable or unwilling to address economic insecurity, voters are increasingly willing to look elsewhere or disengage.

People are feeling politically disaffected now, in the lead up to the 2026 election, but we can also look at who they voted for in the 2021 election. People who voted Scottish Conservative (50%) and Scottish Liberal Democrats (39%) in 2021 are most likely to be feeling politically disaffected now. Then looking at political disaffection by intended vote in 2026, nearly 2 in 3 Reform UK (64%) voters and half of undecided (51%) voters are politically disaffected. 

Where parties have seen a fall in political disaffection, it is likely due to their more disaffected 2021 voters intending to move their vote elsewhere in 2026. For example, around 1 in 3 (36%) Scottish Conservative voters intending to stick with the Scottish Conservatives in 2026 were politically disaffected, compared to 78% who are intending to move their vote to Reform UK. Or 15% of Scottish Labour voters planning to stick with Scottish Labour were feeling politically disaffected compared to 66% planning to move to Reform UK.

We find that for politically disaffected voters there is a shift away from historically larger parties (particularly Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour) and a move towards Reform UK and Scottish Greens, as well as significant proportions being undecided as to who to vote for in the 2026 elections (15%).

But no matter which party people vote for, there is consensus on what the solutions are. Delivering on key policies that improve living standards is a clear way for all political parties to improve their voters’ and, critically, undecided voters’, feelings about politics in Scotland.

Our analysis has shown that there is a link between political disaffection and economic insecurity, with half (52%) of politically disaffected people feeling economically insecure. By targeting manifesto pledges towards policies that improve living standards and tackle poverty, political parties can appeal to both economically insecure and politically disaffected voters who, when combined, make up nearly two thirds (62%) of adults in Scotland.

Political parties now face the challenge of showing the public that politics can improve living standards for families in Scotland. Crucially that means going beyond rhetoric into action.  Politics demands leadership and providing a compelling vision for what the future of a country can be, but the time for talking about that future is clearly over, it is now time to build it.

So, that leaves the question: what do these findings mean for each of the parties as we enter the pre-election period?

While people in Scotland continue to see the Scottish Government as responsible for improving living standards, confidence in delivery is fading. High levels of insecurity among SNP voters, alongside nearly a third (31%) who are politically disaffected, points to a fragile voter base. Without action that takes pressure off household budgets, improves pay and expands access to affordable homes, there is a risk that voters’ insecurity and disaffection will increase.

For Scottish Labour, voters want to see a concrete offer that will challenge the status quo and directly improve their families’ lives. The vast majority (71%) of politically disaffected voters who chose Scottish Labour in 2021 are now looking elsewhere for a political home. Prioritising commitments on housing, improving pay for the lowest-paid workers and supporting households with the cost of essentials is key for rebuilding trust.

Half of people who voted for the Scottish Conservatives in 2021 are now politically disaffected. While Conservative voters place particular emphasis on jobs and economic opportunity, many are also struggling with similar pressures, rising bills, insecure work and the cost of housing. When these pressures go unaddressed, we see people redirect their vote to other parties.

While Reform UK have seen a rise in the polls in Scotland, the majority of the party’s voter base are politically disaffected. This is in part driven by a widespread frustration with the status quo. Yet again their voter base is keen to see action that will address the underlying drivers of economic insecurity and improve living standards.

Scottish Green voters are among the most economically insecure. This reflects a younger voter base with less security in housing and work. There is a strong alignment in Scottish Green voters' priorities on housing affordability, energy costs and good-quality jobs. This points to a necessity for the Green party to emphasise the link between climate policy commitments and economic policies that will improve living standards for people now, as well as in the future.

For every party considering their offer to the electorate they must understand 1 key message: economic insecurity is shaping how people vote, how they feel about politics, and if they believe change is possible at all. The election in May is therefore not just a contest between parties, but a test of whether politics can once again be seen to improve people’s lives, particularity those who are currently facing the most pressure. To pass that test parties will need to act with courage and at the scale the task demands.

You can read more about the survey and how we define economic insecurity and political disaffection in our accompanying work.

The Scottish Parliament uses a proportional representation electoral system, meaning that people vote for both a constituency and regional representative. In this work we focus on people’s intended constituency vote in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections. However, it’s important to note that some people will also have alternative choices in their List vote (for their regional seat). There is significant duplication of voting intention between Constituency and List vote in this data, for example, people intending to vote SNP in the Constituency vote are also likely to vote SNP in the List vote. It is also worth noting that when we show the proportion of people voting for a particular party (or undecided) we are showing the proportion of all people polled rather than just those who have stated a voting preference.

If you are using this document in your own writing, our preferred citation is:

Birt, C. Cebula, C. Evans, J. McKenzie, A. (2026) Political parties must address economic insecurity. York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation.